Posted by on 9 Mar 2012. Filed under Politics, Top news. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Election: Fico To Win, But Who Will Hold His Hand?

So the time has come for eligible voters around the country to work out who is the most representative of their interests in the elections tomorrow, with all the recent affairs swaying in favour of Robert Fico’s Smer-SD party, which has persistently enjoyed over 40% of the vote according to opinion polls.

Robert Fico confident but wary of repeat of 2009

Fico’s party enjoyed the same degree of support also in the last election, but missed out on forming a government marginally as the four right wing parties grouped to gain a slim majority in parliament (79 0f 150 seats). It proved to be too slim for the government to last, though, as it crumbled in October 2011 after less than 1.5 years.

Although some fear Smer-SD having a one-party government, including the party itself, the chances are the party will fall just short of a majority and so will have to seek a partner, possibly in the shape of nationalist SNS party once again, the 99% Civic Voice party, the Christian democrats of KDH or even the Hungarian coalition party SMK.

Jan Slota’s SNS party only got into parliament last time literally be a few hundred votes, and the latest poll of the MVK agency from last weekend puts the party under the 5% parliamentary threshold with just 4.5%, so maybe no ally there for Smer-SD. It is joined below the threshold by the 99% party (4% in the poll), which took a hit recently over the falsified signatures in its registration petition.

If the poll were accurate, this could mean Fico would have to rely on the support of the KDH party, which has been least affected by recent events and has seen its voter support rise to 12% in the poll. This would put the KDH party at the helm of the right-wing parties, meaning it could be faced with the choice of playing second fiddle to Robert Fico’s Smer-SD party, or first fiddle among another multi-party “mishmash government”, as Fico always referred to the outgoing coalition.

The other parties that according to the MVK poll would make it into parliament are Most-Hid, which with 7% even pipped the SDKU party of Mikulas Dzurinda, which was assigned just 6% along with the liberal SaS party of Richard Sulik. Igor Matovic’s new party Ordinary People and Independent Personalities looks set to make it past the 5% threshold, with the recent poll giving it around 5.5% of the vote.

An interesting development is the potential resurrection of the Hungarian coalition party SMK, which didn’t make it into parliament last time, but which has seen its support grow mostly to the detriment of the current coalition parties. The MVK poll gives the party 5.5%, and so it could see a return to the National Council.

Voter turnout is expected to be low, in the range of 44-50 percent, despite some last ditch efforts of parties and Gorilla protesters to get people out to vote, but many voters have become almost apathetic recently in light of all the corruption allegations. There can be no doubt that Smer-SD will be the outright winner of the elections, but it could find itself in a similar dilemma as it did in June 2010, when it didn’t have enough allies to form a government.

10 Comments for “Election: Fico To Win, But Who Will Hold His Hand?”

  1. George M

    Their data is flawed ? What you want to spin that you waited till they all counted the votes before you ran an item ? What a load of old tosh !

    A website with opening hours ?

    Part of the story ( perhaps even excitement ) in any Election is the twists and turns as the results come in during the evening , not Oh right Smer won and here we go the next day .

    What happened to the army of Reporters you claim on your website? All numb from the neck up or out getting pissed on a Saturday night ? As stated , this is a Muse Paper , not a News Paper .

  2. George M

    Any update on the Election ? …Oh no , then I`ll have to go to Spectator as they ran an all night update .

  3. Dave Crawford

    A hard call George! The opinion polls don’t help, the samples are far too small and I am sure they are only conducted in Bratislava. Over here in the eastern provinces, most people I talk to think El Fico and his bandits should be breaking rocks, Mick the Tick still has a faithfull following from the church goers, the SaS seem to have lost all popularity , KDH and Most -Hid appeal to businessmen for some unknown reason, the Matovic gang and 99% could be a good bet as the power brokers in a centre-right coalition IF they can work together without backstabbing each other at every turn. There could be a major suprise in the offing, so much depends on the weather, whats on TV, voter apathy, number of sausages offered. One thing is for certain, with most SK politicians being prepared to join a leper colony if it means getting their hands in the till, the Slovaks will not get a government that will improve their ( or our ) lives and outlook.

  4. StaryJazvec

    Cant believe KDH would be stupid enuff to join a coalition with SMER either, they would end up like the Lib Dems, universally despised and without support.

  5. The Big Guy at the Back

    Soory, I meant dose , not does !

  6. The Big Guy at the Back

    Is this website supporting any particular grouping as a matter of policy ?

    Or are we just fence sitting JB ?

    George, I feel everyone needs a good does of Socialism, once every few years, just to make the numbskulls that voted for them, in the hope that they would be better off , never vote for them, ever again.

  7. StaryJazvec

    There is zero possibility of a SMER – Hungarian coalition.

    “last ditch efforts of parties and Gorilla protesters to get people out to vote”.

    Gorilla protesters are urging people to vote? Really? I havent noticed.

  8. George M

    Any bets on the next Government ?

    Smer 73 ….with who ? SDKU ??….yes Micky and his pals will do anything to stay in some power and with the vote sliding to 6% of the vote , that may be enough to make them them happy to eat shite . They have a lot of `investors` still to pay !

    Cannot see KDH , that makes no kind of match and Dipstick and Fico , do hate each other . SaS ….no chance , Most Hid ….could be a late runner rather than SMK or the SDKU .

    Just cannot see the Right Wing brothers coming together again …SDKU would hate being subservient to fellow former brothers in arms.

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