It is still way too early to make any qualified estimate as to how the March 2012 elections will end, but a recent survey of the MVK agency shows that the now interim four-party caretaker government would be able to regain power thanks to a very slim majority.
As expected, the survey puts Robert Fico’s Smer-SD party on top with 37.5% of the vote, followed by the SDKU party and the Freedom and Solidarity party (SaS) with 11.6% and 10.9% respectively. The SaS party was shunned after refusing to support the eurozone bailout fund EFSF, leading to the downfall of the government, but it seems to be gathering pace and catching up on the SDKU party in the polls.
Regarding the other two coalition parties in the caretaker government, the Christian democrats of KDH would enjoy 9.5% of the vote, while the Most-hid party of Bela Bugar would get around 8.2%. The four parties in the caretaker government are not so keen to work together again, though, so the outcome of post-election talks is anybody’s guess at the moment.
The poll does not expect any other party to make it past the 5% threshold of the electorate to get into parliament, meaning the nationalist party SNS of Jan Slota would lose out this time, having only just scraped in by a few votes in the 2010 election.
The same goes for the Hungarian coalition party SMK, and the new parties of independent MPs Anna Belousovova (NaS) and of Igor Matovic (supposed to be Obycajni Ludia, but someone registered the name out of spite so he will have to pick a new name).
The survey claims that not even half of qualified voters would have turned out for the elections if they had been held in October, with just 44% saying they would have gone to the polls.